Mainframe Talent: An Endangered Species

Big iron still gets big use, but lack of personnel is a growing problem.

It's estimated that 60% of corporate America's data sits in mainframes. IBM (NYSE: IBM), the premier mainframe vendor, says its big iron business grew 25% last year. And for the first time in more than two decades, mainframe pricing went up. All of these are signs that mainframes are still vital IT systems.Nonetheless, General Mills Inc. is shutting down its Amdahl mainframe. The $13 billion maker of such foods as Cheerios, Betty Crocker cake mixes, and Yoplait yogurt is getting rid of the mainframe because it can't find replacements for its retiring mainframe experts, and it doesn't want to pay the high prices mainframe consultants command.

It's clear that there's a human-resources problem when it comes to the mainframe. According to studies done by Meta Group, 60% of the people in data centers housing mainframes are 50 or older; 10% are 60 or older. When comparing IT staffers who work on Unix and Windows servers with those who can work on mainframes, a striking age gap emerges: for example, 22% of Unix and Windows staffers are around the age of 30, compared with just 5% of mainframe workers who are around that age. Only 8% of Unix-and Windows-trained IT employees are 50 or older, according to the studies. Meta Group analyst Rob Schaefer says the mainframe isn't as sexy a system as Windows, Unix-based Web servers, or Linux. "For our mainframe customers, attrition is disproportionate compared to the other platforms," he says, "and no new blood is coming in."

Half the mainframe talent has retired from Mission Linen Supply, Szerwo says.
However, not everyone will abandon mainframes in the foreseeable future. That's because of the huge investments companies have already made in mainframe applications and the millions of dollars it can take to migrate those applications to other platforms or host them at outsourcing shops.

There continue to be efforts designed to help businesses that are keeping their mainframes. For one, the mainframe is becoming more automated, so it requires fewer IT specialists to run and maintain it. Now, says Gartner industry analyst John Phelps, many companies are maintaining their mainframe environments, rather than developing new applications for them, and that typically requires about one-third the number of people. Some colleges are teaching mainframe skills and even getting funding from mainframe vendors such as IBM.

Also, tools are available to help ease integration between mainframe data, typically residing in DB2 and Cobol applications, and client-server and Web applications. Xbridge's Host Data Connect software, for example, can convert Cobol data into a Windows format.

The number of people with mainframe skills for such things as the MVS operating system, Cobol, and the Customer Information Control System started to erode during the '80s, says Ron Hankison, president and CEO of Xbridge. "By the end of that decade, only a few people knew what was going on with MVS, and eyes started to glaze over at the mention of Cobol, CICS, and the mainframe's transaction monitor," Hankison says. Still, he says there are 5 million to 9 million new lines of Cobol code written each year. "It's almost impossible to get rid of the mainframe," he says.

IBM also is trying to ease mainframe pressures, Gartner's Phelps says. It's providing grants to 40 universities and colleges, including Colorado State University, Marist College, and the University of Georgia, so they'll teach mainframe-oriented skills as part of their curriculum. It wouldn't disclose the value of the various grants. Not surprisingly, most of the IBM-funded education centers on Linux on the mainframe. IBM has ambitious plans under way to develop a Linux-only mainframe. The plans are to merge Linux with the hardware remote-access service functionality of the mainframe. Analysts say that a Linux mainframe lacks the heart of an IBM mainframe, the z/OS operating system, but it has the identical high-end hardware capabilities.